Climate Change

UC Davis economics PhD student Matias Solorza presented his work on the regional economic impacts of natural disasters in Chile. Matias' work analyzes the macroeconomic responses of Chilean regions to extreme weather-related shocks, such as floods and wildfires, using local projections. Unlike the positive effects observed in some developed countries, his findings reveal a persistent decline in regional GDP and a temporary reduction in private consumption.

Devin Serfas presented his research on the effects of soil organic carbon (SOC) on crop yield and profitability in Saskatchewan, Canada. Soil is an important sink for atmospheric carbon but many farmers see little private benefit from preserving SOC on their fields.

Madeline Turland recently presented her job market paper, which explores the factors driving human migration in response to the threat of wildfires and how people's risk preferences impact their choice of where to live. Many individuals opt to move to areas with lower wildfire risk as a strategy for risk reduction. To measure the impact of changes in wildfire risk, she developed a novel data set by using a quirk of California insurance markets.

Frederik Strabo presented preliminary work modeling how competition between adjacent landowners can shape their incentives to invest in forest fire prevention. The combination of historical land use practices and climate change have greatly increased the risk and severity of forest fires. Landowners can mitigate these risks by investing in costly interventions like forest thinning. They can also adjust to these risks by changing when (and if) they harvest the trees in their forests.

Devin Serfas presented findings from his work developing and applying models of soil carbon dynamics to field-level soil and crop production data from Saskatchewan. Agricultural soil carbon sequestration is considered by many to be an important method for reducing atmospheric carbon. Agricultural practices and production decisions affect the rate at which carbon from the atmosphere enters the soil and the rate at which carbon from the soil mineralizes and leaves the soil as CO2.