Madeline Turland recently presented her job market paper, which explores the factors driving human migration in response to the threat of wildfires and how people's risk preferences impact their choice of where to live. Many individuals opt to move to areas with lower wildfire risk as a strategy for risk reduction. To measure the impact of changes in wildfire risk, she developed a novel data set by using a quirk of California insurance markets. Typically, insurance prices align with the level of risk, but in California, there are limits on how much insurance companies can raise prices from year to year. As a result, insurance companies cease coverage in areas where wildfire risk has rapidly increased, and the number of homes lacking private insurance coverage becomes a reliable indicator of wildfire risk.

 In addition to this unique dataset, Madeline employed an instrumental variable analysis technique known as a shift-share instrument to estimate the causal effect of heightened wildfire risk on migration. Her findings revealed that individuals with lower incomes and those less averse to risk were more inclined to relocate to areas with higher wildfire risk. These results carry implications for public policy, as lower-income individuals have limited resources to recover from natural disasters, and people with lower risk aversion are less likely to take preventative measures.