Climate change has increased the frequency of drought events in the Amazon. Deforestation worsens local climate dynamics, and weather shocks can, in turn, influence land-use decisions. In the Brazilian Amazon, where land tenure is a mix of public and private holdings, landholders on public lands may lack incentives to manage forests sustainably. Bruno and his coauthors, ARE professors Matt Reimer and Kevin Novan, examine how droughts differentially affect pasture expansion on public versus private lands. Using spatially matched comparisons within 0.5° grid cells, they find that during drought years, ranchers on public lands expand pasture area by 30\% more than in baseline years, while private landholders show no significant response. 

 

They then explore the mechanisms behind this difference and find that drought-induced pasture degradation leads to expansion in both tenure types. However, ranchers on public lands expand pasture by 20\% more than those on private lands in response to similar degradation. Moreover, only public landholders continue to expand even after controlling for degradation, suggesting additional drivers, such as lower deforestation costs in drier, more flammable forests. These findings indicate that climate-induced droughts increase deforestation pressure on public forests, which store substantial carbon stocks and cover over two-thirds of the Amazon. This vulnerability complicates efforts to mitigate climate change. Policymakers should enhance the monitoring of public lands during drought years, improve enforcement of property rights, and consider taxing extensive cattle ranching. While their results highlight tenure-based differences under short-term drought conditions, they do not imply that one tenure system performs better in environmental measures under long-term aridification.