This schematic shows the model interventions and disease transmission pathways of the COVID-19 model. The full lines represent the transition between, or out of, compartments while the dotted lines represent contact between susceptible and infected individuals. Black lines represent situations that do not vary, while yellow lines represent key factors that we vary in our model to see how they impact our results. The green lines represent the pharmaceutical interventions and the red line represents mortality.

Lab Preprint - Spatial allocation of scarce vaccine and antivirals for COVID-19

François M. Castonguay and James N. Sanchirico, and coauthors have a preprint on COVID-19 vaccine and antivirals allocation. Much of the discussion around pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 has focused on what segments of the population to prioritize for vaccines. Questions on how to allocate a vaccine across jurisdictions within a country and how to allocate other pharmaceutical interventions, such as antiviral drugs have received much less attention. The paper investigates these questions by benchmarking the economic and public health performance of ad hoc allocation rules against optimally-derived rules. The paper measures the robustness of these rules to compliance to non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as travel restrictions, and to uncertainty on the degree of immunity. François, Jim and coauthors find economic and public health gains from spatially targeted rules even after considering additional costs associated with deviations from the ad hoc rules.

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