Lab Seminar - Policy substitutability and voter preference: evidence from municipal land use ballot referenda

Matt explaining the Venn graph
Matt is explaining the Venn graph.

Matthew Gammans presented his research on voter preferences.  This work is a collaboration with Jim Sanchirico, Paul Armsworth, Kailin Kroetz, and Elaine Swiedler.  The results of ballot referenda have often been used by researchers to infer the preferences of voters for various types of policy. In this research, Matt and co-authors propose a simple theoretical framework for considering the substitutability or complementarity of various land use policies. They apply this framework to a novel dataset of 579 land-related municipal ballot measures in California. They find that anti-growth measures are less likely to succeed when paired with other anti-growth measures and interpret these results to imply that voters view competing anti-growth measures as substitutable.